Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
